Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Excellent post.
The only thing I'd really like more of a breakdown on is specifically, accounts wagering $100m or more.
My (highly reliable) sources tell me that there are 6 such organizations, and that between them they wager 15+% of that 19%.
Recently, I met with "some" highly successful players to discuss ideas for "fixing what's broken."
Perhaps you could add your opinions to this?
What they/we came up with was a structured tier of max bet sizes per account based upon minutes to post.
Example (Win Pool Bets):
5 minutes - unlimited wager size
4 minutes - $2,000
3 minutes - $1,000
2 minutes - $500
1 minute - $300
0 minutes - $250
Obviously, these maximums would need to be adjusted for each pool, based upon average pool size. (Which also takes into consideration the problem of BEL vs. WRD having different size pools.)
These numbers need tweaking, but consider what this does.
1) It causes tracks to run closer to designated post times (which could be determined when the tote for the race opens up).
2) It does not curtail the AMOUNT of money wagered by "whales." It only curtails WHEN they can bet it.
3) Tracking account ownership across multiple ADWs would be a challenge to overcome, but considering taxation requirements that information is clearly available.
4) Wagering stops when the 1st horse enters the gate.
Exceptions can be made if a horse scratches and everyone has to get re-loaded. (Think "Overtime" betting.) |
Would this make for a better product then we have now. Yes. Would it change the net roi of non rebated bettors in aggregate. No. If so a tiny fraction of what they are currently losing. So without reiterating my viewpoint on the subject for the 900th time, I will say this. What NYRA has done in keeping much of the ADW money out of the win pools only is probably a best guide as to what kind of effect this idea would have. So if a bunch of people want to jump in here and say that since NYRA stopped CAW betting at 3 minutes to post, they have done noticeably better making win bets on the NYRA circuit , I have to remain very skeptical. I haven't seen one person here post that they are doing better or the game is so much better in the win pools since NYRA made that change which is much more beneficial to the layman than your proposed change.
So it ultimately goes back to whether racing wants to be a player in the advantage gambling arena or they want to be like the keno room to everyone except those who are getting rebates. Once in a while I see 4 or 5 people in the Keno room.
CJ, I believe Ocrunk's post in a similar thread a couple of months back gives you the numbers you need. If I recall correctly non teams over 10 years at NYRA were losing 20% in the wps pools and in every other major pools it was around 27 to 28%. If racing thinks they can compete with other advantage gambling games that work on a roughly 5% takeout, with those kind of numbers, I want some of the stuff they are smoking.
From a personal standpoint, I don't think I will be winning the World Series of Poker anytime soon and I don't think I am in any danger of getting banned out of my sports betting account, but I can hold my own day and night. That is the point I am trying to make, but it is very much to deaf ears in the racing industry. I love handicapping and betting racing, but they just don't provide most a fair shake and a reasonable chance of winning long term. I can hold my own on pick 5's at woodbine mohawk, but is it worth the handicapping time to do it? Down the road I may get back into it. But for now, now and again when I have the time I will handicap a card and hit the local race book, but nothing like what I would be doing if they priced the game properly. I am fine either way. I have plenty of gambling activities I can participate in. The racing industry has chosen to keep me out of theirs for the most part.
