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Old 02-10-2023, 12:35 PM   #4633
Rex Phinney
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Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
While I certainly expect the market to continue in a slow downward trend I can't get on board with the "biggest market collapse in history"


That is, from a strictly numbers based perspective, almost impossible at this point because for over a year now money has been coming out of the market in preparation for a pending recession. You simply cannot slowly drain money from the market for 12 months, set it in cash and then expect some kind of epic dramatic collapse.



Basically any significant move down right now will be met with buying and therefore the market can churn lower but it cannot collapse.



I do think the market will continue lower for the next 12-24 months with the ultimate bottom coming in somewhere between 3,200 and 3,500 on the S&P as this represents a 15% dip in earnings (from here) at 16 times P/E


All that being said the volatility of the market presents opportunity even now. The covered call and put market is alive and well and even simple funds that deal in this area are performing very well.
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