Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I have similar thinking when to comes to betting against legitimate favorites.
If you eliminate some bad/false favorites, the rest of them will outperform the track take quite significantly and may even approach "break even" if you are very good at it. That means trying to find overlays betting against legitimate favorites is a rougher game than people realize.
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No question. In theory if these guys are betting 1/3rd of the money in the pools and are near break even pre-rebate, they aren't making a lot of mistakes. The problem of course is that joe public and them both agree that a horse has true odds of 2-1. Joe public gets no rebate they get a 10% rebate or more. Joe public has no chance of making a profit because they will do their best to assure that the horse pays about $5.50 or $5.60. They make a small profit and Joe Public loses with the exact same opinion. This happens in race after race, day after day.
The other difference is that typically when Joe Public has a different opinion then them, they will be right and Joe Public will be wrong. So if Joe has a horse at 2-1 and they have it at 3-1 and let the horse go off at 2.8-1, Joe thinks he is betting value, betting with both hands, when in fact he typically is below break even.
Factor in the fact that we don't know what the odds will be until after the bell and the deck is pretty much stacked against the average player. That is typical for gambling period, so I get why the suits don't really care. I just feel like this game could be so much more popular and do so much better if it was handled properly. But perhaps that ship has sailed. You can only kill an industry for so long before trying to revive it becomes futile.
Regarding your post, I don't know how many bad/false favorites there really are. I know when I look at my data and see horses that I make 4-1 or even 6-1 go off at 3/5, they win at a 3/5 shot rate maybe at a 4/5 shot rate, not like 4-1 or 6-1 shots. Like I said above these folks aren't betting 1/3rd of the money into the pools at near break even and making a lot of mistakes. Everything involved with beating this game is tough. But because they are getting fat rebates they are hammering horses below break even, it is hard to approach break even no matter how selective you are unless you are also getting nice rebates. Value exists often. If I line the entire card at any track in the country, I will find value in at least 2 or 3 races. Even blending my line with the public line. Whether it is actual value or perceived value is the question. Only analyzing a whole lot of data and looking at your betting results will answer it.
