|
An odds line is basically a mathematical assessment of your opinion. Theoretically every one makes an odds line in one way or another. You love the 3 in the 3rd race. Do you love him at 1-9(well maybe not), 3-5, sound about right, but maybe you will just key him in pick 3's, trifectas and exactas, or 6-5 HELLO, TIME TO UNLOAD. You just made an odds line. The difference between what you did and what someone who actually make an odds line does, is you just have a feel for what a horse you really like should pay(might be right, might be wrong, just like the person who makes an oddsline), where as someone creating an odds line has to go through each horse and say 1 is 15-1 and 2 is 20-1 and 3 is 6-1.....and this line needs to be set to 100% probability. Anyone who makes odds lines knows that there are many times that you put down your price add every thing up and come up with 120% and not 100%(at least back when they had field sizes of over 10). Now it is time to adjust upwards across the board. Now look how off you were and there would have been to be a lot of perceived value in that race that was not really there. Making an odds line also forces you to really look at every horse. You have to assign a fair price. In doing so you will see things you might not have seen when you just drew a line through him at initial inspection. Now I understand it doesn't work for a lot of people and they do better without one, and for them I can only suggest keep doing what works. It seems that it is a challenge for many to identify whether the 7 should be 18-1 fair value, 25-1 value or 50-1 fair value(this makes no sense to me because it is no different skill set than saying your top choice is worth 2-1 or 5-2. So either it is a skill you work on and improve, or you give it up and look for another approach. There are many horses that require too much guess work. You may label him a 15-1 shot(was once good, 8 month layoff...), but when you see him at 34-1 as they are approaching the gate, you realize that maybe you should have made him 30-1 or even 50-1. However if he opens at 3-1 and is 9/2 as they are approaching the gate, time to adjust your line the other way. These situations create inaccuracies, but these inaccuracies can be fixed. You can use a spreadsheet to change your line on certain horses you made a mistake on and fix your line on the rest. Your not selling your odds line. Your not publishing it on the web. Your simply giving your opinion on each horse for yourself to see and for yourself to identify value (you don't even have to only bet value if that is your issue-focus on top contenders that are not undervalued). If your top choice that you made 2-1 is 6/5, probably not a great bet keying him in the exotics, but if his is 9/5 or 2-1, nothing wrong with it(you can extract the value in the exotics hopefully).
|
