Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Sapio
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.
One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.
TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.
Thomas Sapio
|
Those who love their morning lines will claim that they are doing this. The idea of confidence in a statistical sense is not a bad one to play around with. The public's confidence is expressed in the tote board.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
