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We discussed some of this in another thread related to Saratoga handle.
The weather may be a primary driver of handle at Saratoga year to year, but industry wide, the economy matters. All you have to do is look at what happened to industry handle as a result of the 2008 recession. It took a long time just to get back to where we were before that (not even inflation adjusted).
I provided the data at the time and predicted a down period.
During the Covid period, money was extremely loose, people were getting checks from the government, and there was some pent up demand from the period the tracks were closed. Now things are back to normal in that regard, but there are no more government checks, inflation is eating away at disposable income, and there have been layoffs in some industries on top of much stronger competition for sports betting. A tailwind became a headwind.
Obviously, I'm not hoping for a full blown recession, but with inflation still high, the Fed still tightening money, and competition still heating up, a worse period might still be ahead.
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