02-09-2019, 12:04 AM
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#474
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Overall Dutch Win Profit Margins thru 2/7/19
After taking a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis I’m able to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks. The Top 3 have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins are higher ^ than 50%. If not the race becomes an automatic Pass.
These are the documented results for the selections I've posted on PA for the last 46 race cards at both Sha Tin and Happy Valley.
Code:
3-ENTRY DUTCH WIN RESULTS
PROFIT MARGIN % %
DATE DAY SHA-TIN HAP-VALLEY
09/02/18 SUN 41
09/05/18 WED 73
09/09/18 SUN 34
09/12/18 WED 98
09/16/18 SUN CANCELLED
09/19/18 WED CANCELLED
09/22/18 SAT -44 (YIELDING)
09/26/18 WED 62
10/01/18 MON 41
10/03/18 WED 65
10/07/18 SUN 78
10/10/18 WED 25
10/13/18 SAT 43
10/18/18 WED 82
10/21/18 SAT 52
10/24/18 WED 36
10/28/18 SUN -13
10/31/18 WED 25
11/04/18 SUN -2
11/07/18 WED 34
11/10/18 SAT 75
11/14/18 WED 98
11/18/18 SUN 45
11/21/18 WED 47
11/25/18 SUN 30
11/28/18 WED 42
12/02/18 SUN 66
12/05/18 WED 75
12/09/18 SUN 0
12/12/18 WED 58
12/15/18 SAT 37
12/19/18 WED 0
12/23/18 SUN 81
12/26/18 WED 30
12/29/18 SUN -25
01/01/19 WED 65
01/06/19 SUN 53
01/09/19 WED 8
01/12/19 SAT 39
01/16/19 WED 146
01/20/19 SUN -45
01/23/19 WED 40
01/27/19 SUN 51
01/30/19 WED 66
02/02/19 SUN 0
02/07/19 THURS 44
SHA-TIN HAP-VALLEY
TOTAL AVG PROFIT 36 56
TOTAL 46 RACE DAYS
TOTAL AVG PROFIT BOTH TRKS 46
I’ll let you be the judge after making the comparisons between these results and perhaps the most prolific player, Bill Benter.
Keep in mind that the amazing Bill Benter’s computerized system at Hong Kong initially produced a 27% Profit Margin. Later after introducing the public's betting activities into his program his over-all Profit Margin increased to a healthy 34%.
Quote:
from Bill Benter's Report
CREATING UNBIASED PROBABILITY ESTIMATES
It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates (the tote board activities), and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.
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