Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
There is an alternative that many successful players utilize that eliminates a lot of the guesswork when playing multiple races.
Instead of playing the Pick-Whatever and being forced to play a predetermined sequence of races, why not do yourself a favor and simply Parlay the races that you feel most comfortable with?
You would also have an opportunity to pass or play those races based on the value that they might offer.
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Yeah. This.
I constantly take stock of and reevaluate my strengths and weakness. My strengths are generally sprint races on dirt involving claimers, allowance, stakes.
My weaknesses are maiden claiming races, maiden specials (to some degree), and turf route races.
So if I see two turf route races and a maiden claiming race in the sequence, I'll skip the sequence. I'm just not good enough yet.
But if I see a sequence with a turf route, a maiden race, and two dirt sprints, I'll give it a try. (Obviously, for me, four sprint races on dirt would be even better.)
Then, when it comes time to handicap the sequence, I start with the maiden race first; then the turf route; and then I do the dirt sprints last--generally giving myself the most coverage in the turf spring and the maiden race. So I routinely handicap the races out of order in terms of when they run.
But there are always surprises. Sometimes I give myself coverage in the turf route and the maiden race--and then realize one or both of the dirt sprints is far more difficult than I thought. And then I have to decide if I'm going to reduce my coverage in the turf route or the maiden race--or perhaps skip the sequence altogether simply because I'm not good enough yet to figure it out.
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The BIGGEST mistake I make is handicapping all of the races in the sequence except one, and then I realize that the last race I handicap is far more difficult than I thought. And then I either: 1) Spend too much money on the sequence, or 2) start cutting horses off the ticket that ultimately go on to win. I need to say, "F*** this sequence!" more often, regardless of how much work and thought I have put into it.
Once I am better and more reliable at handicapping, then I may spend more time thinking about whether I want more coverage in the first or last races of the sequence. I'm not there yet. I'm still figuring out how to win sequences more consistently.
