Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Again 7/5 in the final DD probables matrix from the prev race, went off at even money, two ticks difference. Really nothing to see here if people have the time to calculate it. To pull the trigger on 7/5 for a 50% overlay to win you would want to have made the horse 4/5 or less anyway and it paid even money. Not a huge overlay if you made it 4/5 but not an underlay. The alternative is jumping on it at 1 or 0 MTP where I'm guessing what was it 2-1 or 5-2 ? smh If someone is still doing it that way then they're betting it if it's as much as 6-5 on their line and getting an underlay payoff. Folks really need to stop doing things that way. I mean I did it that way in my day but this isn't the old days. In any case I feel like I'm beating a dead horse with this. It is what it is, it'll have to be fixed odds to stop these complaints I suppose which I'm fine with. Works for me.
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My work around for this kind of thing has been to change my mode of thinking.
In the past I’d either make a rough odds line or rank the horses in order of probability. Then I’d look at the odds board for anything I disagreed with significantly.
Now I identify the contenders and look for a horse I think is a lot better or worse than it looks on paper because I have an insight that is generally misunderstood or not shared by a lot of other serious players. My preference is to have 1 positive and 1 negative inside the same race.
I guess to some extent you could say I’m handicapping the other handicappers by asking “what is that all the other players could be getting wrong or missing in this race?” And naturally I try to avoid races where I’m the one that has holes in my game.
