Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe
I'll settle for "Horse and Race" is different...
SAy you have a 10,000 claimer in top condition and hes Early...
He moves up to 20,000 claimer with 2 Earlies....
No matter whats his form....Guess what ...he'll lose 9 of 10 times....
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You tend to look at things in isolation which is wrong, but settle for what you want. Moving up in class is a different topic from energy distribution (and by inference, PTE -- Probable Total Energy). And if the 20k earlies are @62% of their total energy because they've raced four times in nine weeks, and the 10k is at 95% third off a layoff AND the trainer has a wpct of 18% moving up in class and 16% 3rd off layoff? Oh...the 10k horse is 7-1 and the 20Ks are < 5-2. Now what?
The horses still make up the composition of a race. Do I think race analysis is important? Of course and probably needs to be done more. And if you can find other situations where horses can lose 90% of the time then you have found handicapping gold. However, it seems like you want to examine all the individual parts without putting them together in a meaningful way.
