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Old 08-29-2020, 11:52 AM   #1422
Handiman
BarelyWinning
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Santa Rosa, California
Posts: 2,828
Mike. The same thing can be achieved through weighting. Say Class gets a number and then say Jockey gets 3 times that number with number of starts adjustment. I am considering all possibilities. May even have a scaling and no scaling toggle switch. The one thing that bothers me about Mitchell normalizing, is the fact that some horses in some factors don't deserve a floor of 60. They in fact could be so bad that their particular number for a factor should be no more than say a 30. You are effectively giving that horse a 50% artificial boost it didn't earn. So in a a race with 5 horses the worst horse has a 20% chance of winning, just because he only has to beat 4 other horses. But by giving him the protection of a normalized floor figure, you are saying he has a better chance than what reality gives him just due to the field size. Hope that makes sense.

Handi
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