Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
I will post some examples of winners tomorrow but until then......here's the angle.
1) Horse is coming out of a Key race (or what can be assumed as a key race with at least two finishers in italics) two races back.
2) Last out, horse stepped up in class, showed good position early in the race, then faded.
3) Today, he/she either cuts back one turn or drops back down to the conditions two races back.
I've been spending a lot more time lately studying the right side of the PP's and it's been interesting.
More detail and examples to come tomorrow.
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I'll be on the lookout Coach. Deep diving into Key Races has been on my agenda. Oaklawn really highlighted my cognitive bias (see I'm learning) to ignore horses exiting key races that finished well back. It's simple to pick up on a horse that finished "best of the rest" by 8 lengths to a next time out winner. It's harder (for me) to land on a horse that finished 6th in the same race. But that's where the value can be found. Combining trip and condition analysis seems like a logical next step.
Even better would be if you could identify a key race earlier than the rest of the betting public...
