Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones
Are we to believe that connections in this country are so dull that they would ignore a diamond in the rough? With money at stake? That this one agent can hold everyone else at bay? I get that Leon is a bully at an Ohio track. And every 20 years a grade one race breaks in his favor. Why not? He's a highly trained rider. He ran a superb race showing the patience an experienced rider should.
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It was a great race and probably the signature race of his entire career and that you are his number one fan. He's a great Ohio jockey. We're happy for him. We're happy that you are happy for him. He isn't JJ.
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the diamond in the rough stuff is generally non-existent, just as markets are generally efficient
but market inefficiencies do occur. It's not all randomness of and luck across perfectly priced complete information; - there are overlays and underlays once in while.
Additionally, people matter. Interrelatedness and connectivity matter. Scouts and agents and connections work a market-position with forces beyond even the simplicity of a factor such as rider merit.
I don't know much about Sonny Leon specifically.
The first barrier to jockeydom is being small enough, then being as close to the ideal size as possible. Then comes health and skill.
Leon seems at a glance to have these (I don't know if he actually has some height/weight struggle).
Leon has the general skill, and the specialized skill to be able do certain things like break, close, drive etc...
Leon is not apparently unusually non-athletic or weak or slow. He seems to be intelligent enough, perhaps even being above average or more in things like 'spatial awareness'.
Unless I'm missing something, a guy like Leon could generally ride at an 'A' Circuit, providing he could sustain and thrive mentally even if it turns out that he would be a 'C' jock on such a circuit with a book of mostly non-contenders...
If it turned out that he were actually a leader/outlier in some combination of athleticism and intelligence, he could be an a 'B'/'A' rider anywhere in the world.
I have no idea if Sonny Leon specifically could be more than a 'C' rider on an 'A' circuit, or whether mental strength and circumstance would support that style.
Mark has stated that he was a good jockey well before the Kentucky Derby shocker. That's good enough for me. I'm not a scout, agent or historian. I'd like to find one decent play on a Saturday. Enough for me. I respect all of your opinions. On to Baltimore
