Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Raise A Native have made up about 25% of Derby starters and have won more than 50% of Derby races one was entered. That means they’re winning at twice the expected rate. And, when you combine RAN with Stanley’s magic number of 37.6 or faster final 3/8th in a big 9F prep they win at four times the expected rate. Bold Ruler was the next best one in recent decades if my memory is correct. I wish Roman’s site was still up. It was a treasure trove for this kind of info.
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I did all this work but don't have it with me. I did the male-female of all Derby winners back to 1875 just to see when and where it abruptly changed. But you are right the Nasrullah/Bold Ruler/AP Indy line is making somewhat of a comeback. Of the 3 sons of Nearco, Nasrullah outshines both Royal Charger(mainly through More Than Ready and Arch) and Nearctic(sire of Northern Dancer).
This year.
Raise a Native/Mr Prospector
Firenze Fire, Good Magic, Avery Island, Mckinzie, Solomini, Mourinho, Lombo.
Nearctic/Northern Dancer
Bolt Doro, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Enticed, Audible, Promises Fulfilled.
Royal Charger
Catholic Boy, Instilled Regard.
