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The July jobs report (non-farm payrolls) came in at 1.8 mm, with the unemployment rate falling to 10.2% from 11.1% in June. Even though I've been positive on the economic recovery, I thought the July report might show a modest step back in activity, given recent data from the weekly Census Bureau survey.
Other positive economic data points: manufacturing and services PMIs have inflected higher (typically very reliable indicators for economic activity); housing is strong; and autos sales are recovering. Of course, there are large pockets of weakness, like travel/tourism/dine-in restaurants, but overall things are improving, in my view.
The Fed has expanded its balance sheet (i.e., "money printing") by $2.7 trillion since the beginning of Feb 2020, and various stimulus packages on the fiscal side of the house have totaled roughly $3 trillion. That's an unprecedented amount of stimulus in such a short period of time. It has worked. The long-term ramifications are still unclear.
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