Quote:
Hey Dave - can you explain your stats a bit more? I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level?? is that right? And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself
What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
Betting against favorites (There's a thread in the racing section w/ CJ's stats) is a terrible proposition to do blindly. You have to be very selective, and you have to be correct.
|
I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level??
Absolutely right.
And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself
Sure.
- Starts, Pays, Pct are self-explanatory.
- $Net=Avg return per $2 wagered. Thus, $2.20 would be a 10% advantage, and $1.60 would be 20% disadvantage.
- IV = Impact Value. Wins / Expected Wins as determined by field size in the individual races.
- PIV = Pool Impact Value Wins / Pool Expected Wins as determined by the percentage of pool wagered on each horse.
- DV = Dollar Value. Simply $net / Av. $net in the sample.
- BV = Betting Value. Simply the average pool pct on each category divided by the avg of the entire sample. (This particular column is where one finds truth in this age.
- AvPay = Average Pay of the winners.
- AvOdds = Average Odds across all horses.
- AvPubCh = Average public choice for that row.
A few points.- "-3" means rising today by 3 or more levels.
- "Above" means dropping today by 5 or more levels.
- "If the takeout is (say) 17%, how can the average $net be -25%?"
- "Why are the AvPays lower than the AvOdds would dictate?"
That BV column is really what drives everything important these days.
_______
You said:
Quote:
What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
|
My research would absolutely support what you have said.
HSH users call "flawed favorites" BALOs:
Bet Against Low Odds horses.
You said:
Quote:
|
I have to be right about the flaw
|
Again, my research would support this 100%.
To accomplish this, you have to be able to say something like, "My BALOs lose 30 cents per wagered dollar.""
That demands tracking.
Most people won't make the effort, but the payoff is gigantic.
___________
You said:
Quote:
|
TLDR - Big sample sizes are important, but my strategy involves specific rare opportunitie.
|
Does it work?
What do your stats in that situation look like?
___________
For 9 years, from 2012 to 2021, my BALOs lost 55.5 cents per wagered dollar, with BALO races at ~40%. Two years ago that dropped substantially as the game changed via the whales increasing the efficiency of the top 2.5 choices.
Now I am struggling to get them to lose 40 cents per dollar, and I find only about 28% BALO races.
___________
The biggest challenge today is to figure out
without using the tote board who the top 2.5 choices are going to be.
That's where the BV (Betting Value) become invaluable.
*I've not used the tote board to make a wagering decision in a decade.
(The * is about taking a glance to see if the BALO is 8/1 or above in the gate, which makes him an automatic bet.)
I'd record videos to show how this works but have never been able to see any interest.
