Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
sorry to disagree with you but droppers are better bets than risers (as you said all things being equal)
better ROI with droppers (study used 200,000 droppers and 100,000 risers)
thats a big enough study for me.
i almost can guarantee that if you looked at your last 1000 horses you bet on to win. you have a better ROI with droppers than with risers.
it is that way with my bets.
Allan
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I am interested in this, and interesting in aeeing any stats or studies.
Also interested in your ideas.
If the ROI really is significantly better on droppers, then it would suggest that something isn't being accounted for.
A simplification would say something such as = "the public is often adjusting based upon speed figures&performance figs, but is underestimating the 'easier' race dynamics in lower class levels which then produce even higher speed figs and performance results."
My impression is more in line with Dave Scbwartz here, that droppers give you a higher hit% and perhaps slightly higher ROI and churn, but that both ways are losers.
That Overall, and in general, the Public is very good at voting for various factors and angles.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I just did exactly that, in the post just before yours.
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Hey Dave - can you explain your stats a bit more? I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level?? is that right? And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself
What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
Betting against favorites (There's a thread in the racing section w/ CJ's stats) is a terrible proposition to do blindly. You have to be very selective, and you have to be correct.
With horses up in class, I'm looking to bet ON mid-range and long shots. I prefer them to have some darkened form. I'm being very selective just like with the class droppers (meaning I'm passing almost every race, and I'm looking for my angle along with complimentary angles and no tradeoffs or scary opposing angles).
Again, like CJ's stats this is against the grain and generally a terrible strategy to do on a bunch of random horses.
It's a pari-mutuel game, and some of my plays go against what would look like a 'safe' thing and the 'least pain'
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The way I look at it, every horse has a bucket of money filled with Cash 'Votes', and the favorite's bucket is stuffed with cash. If I can beat the favorite, I get that money to split with the other players who won. Sometimes it's not too big a score, even without the favorite winning, but it's almost always somewhat worthwhile.
They don't happen all that often, but I seem to average a handful of <3/1 per day, and then I at least have to go deeper and handicap those 5 or whatever races.
Sometimes it's dry. Sometimes a bunch. I don't know how many on my watch lists 5k? maybe. Maybe 2500 flawed horses. Those you just skim for the low ml odds. It takes ten minutes to check five watchlists with 500 horses each and maybe 10 entries out of each 500 horses in a given day.
Then you go and check the low odds races and see if you have a legit VulnerableFav/Bet-Against...
Also can find one on occasion just doing some race-watching for today's card (hopefully time well-spent on a full-field with some interesting factors going in an interesting direction).
The mid-range and higher price UP IN CLASS 'class hikers', i've already said that a good slice of that pie for my plays are looking for performance enhancers.
It's all relative. I think on Preakness day, that Brittanny Russell had a Mike Repole runner who was moving Allowance to Stakes (if I'm wrong, please don't crucify me). This horse I think paid $5.40 to win or thereabouts... so "it doesn't fit your strategy Jace!"
... but if you think the horse should be even money, and it's 9/5, then it's the same damn fundamental. A higher than deserved price because of the class hike.
It's rare that a horse fits that as a favorite.
A better Brittany Russell example would be Doppelganger and his lucky win in the Carter that paid $37.80. Seemingly a 'failed' graded stakes horse who was coming out of two consecutive allowance wins. Very fortunate trip, but at least could capitalize for me. In a short field and the Tri paid like $650 for $4 ratio.
More into that 2023 Grade 1 Carter Example; The horse that Brittany beat was the favorite Repo Rocks 0.8/1 Jaime Ness project. Repo Rocks paid out the exact same angle four races back when he came back to NYRA for the Grade3 Toboggan and was 10/1!! Crushed in the Bold Ruler for Greg DiPrima transferred to supertrainer Ness, and had just won two lesser Black Type races at Parx. There was also a 'myth' that Ness was less 'potent' at NYRA. So, Repo Rocks won a related race at 10/1 going up in class.
^
If you blindly bet every class hiker you get killed quick, if you blindly bet every super-trainer class hiker you get a slow painful death.
You have to 1.Be Right (not think or 'feel' it, you have to know and understand it) &2.Be Selective (PRICE is always a factor/model that you want to be both generous/big and one you understand why it's big and about where it will be.) (It sure helps a 10/1 shot a whole lot if you also happen to know the favorite to be vulnerable. This is a rare blessing, it's not something you can have a confirmation bias and 'shape' your reasoning to 'fit' your hopes/greed)(Other Complimentary important models like the projected Pace scenario should be in your favor, or at least neutral).
TLDR - Big sample sizes are important, but my strategy involves specific rare opportunitie.
