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I think you'll generally have an easier time finding value among class droppers than risers.
Horses that move up in class have typically won their last race or at least run very impressively. One exception may be horses that were claimed last out. Everyone knows how to value them though because their form is clear and people know most of the move up trainers.
Horses that are dropping down are sometimes quite a bit better than their speed figures and form against better horses indicates. Those are the types of horses you should be trying to isolate.
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