Statistics generally end up making for trivia, rather than an ROI boost for a horseplayer.
Sometimes you can glean a general model from stats, where you can use it as a guide for specific cases, but especially in basic things like cass drop vs. raise it usually ends up being a thing where the public bets more on a drop and the horses tend to win relatively more on a drop, with the opposite forces present in a class raise. In general the wagering does an accurate job of correcting for the changes.
If we want to win money from this market, we have to find mispriced opportunities using race-specific insights.
I went ahead and wrote a bunch of wisdom regarding how this works in horseplaying.
Discussion, disagreement, race examples, dismissal, name-calling, emojis, etc... are welcome.
Apologies if insights were not preferred to studies and statistics, and in that case, I don't wish to take the thread off track.
Dropping in class - all things being equal (and they never are) you get the
same ROI and the horse wins a relatively higher percentage at a relatively lower price. This is also how it is seen by the public. Your job as a player is to see where a flaw in the animal, or a situational issue with this race (perhaps today's lower-class race actually has a stronger field or a pace scenario which is more adverse for this specific horse's running style, or the horse has fraudulent race(s) at a higher class that happened to be dream trips) or various negative red-flags... call for you to bet-against this specific horse at a low-price today.
low attention summary - Drop?Look for favorite to bet against.
Example - You noted that a horse was unsound and threw him on your watch list. You wake up and are studying your various watch lists for entries and odds, and fortunately a horse from your unsound list(s) was entered as a favorite. You then went to handicap the race and noted that he is a favorite because of the class drop. Because you know of his soundness problem, you can confidently bet against him today.
Raising in class - all things being equal (and they never are) you get the
same ROI and the horse wins a relatively lower percentage at a relatively higher price. This is also how it is seen by the public. Your job as a player is to see where a performance-enhancement of the animal, or a situational issue with the race (perhaps today's higher-class race actually has a weaker field or a pace scenario which is more beneficial for this horse's specific running style, or the horse has darkened-form race(s) at a lower class that happened to be nightmare trips) or various positive factors... call for you to bet On this specific horse at a mid-range-to-long price today.
low attention summary - UpInClass??Look for a price horse to bet on.
Example - You wake up and study your various watch-lists. A horse from your superOwner or superTrainer list was entered at 8-1. You then went to handicap the race and noted that a horse was claimed 30 days ago by an owner that uses PEDs and is running for a high% trainer, and noted that the horse is 8-1 because of a going up in class. Better yet, he may have an upgrade or an excuse in a recent unspectacular race for the prior trainer (whom fortunately you consider to be low potency and baselien or below in performance). Because you know of his projected enhanced performance you can confidently bet to win and/or 'key'.
not the best examples at the drop of a hat but some droppers today that you consider opposing;
so finger lakes r3 you got georgies ladies who has issues and is dropping class and from prestigious circuit. Little bit tough to find rival and may overcome, but you get an example.
Belterra r7 uncle charming is a flawed horse that has been dropping.
Thistledown r4 mere bag of shells isn't dropping per se, just a flawed favorite.
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then some up in class to consider betting on
superOwners and superTrainers aren't doing much today.
Horseshoe Indy Race 9 - not really a class hike, but some similar models as he is a First-Time-Starter;
BATIBAT... Trainer Tim Eggleston isn't a flashy name, but I've seen a couple of his runners outrun my expectations, and his stats are better t han I expected. Had two works which on paper are impressive for this class, and then what appears on paper to have been a maintenance work last time. Not a great example of a class situation with darkened form or new potent trainer, but today is not presenting many to me. This Horseshoe Indy r9 is mildly interesting. There is some entropy, as the favored
Dabney may falter. Should he take $ and falter, with the pari-mutuel system that creates value. Some chaos and randomness could ensue. I've already mentioned the
Batibat. The other horse to arrive on with handicapping would be
Sequeeker. The
is a potential 'key' and if this race was a play, you'd consider opposing the 5/2ml fav
(if you like the
then move on to a better race), and keying both the
and the
.
The
is not a tremendous looking winning type, but nonetheless he does jump off the page as a reliable contender. 3-back she was showing signs of improved form with a willing finish. Not only did Sequeeker ran two higher difficulty races at Turfway, and in both of her races, there was a
strong forward favoring flow.
picture flow =
Today she(the
Sequeeker.) is back in Indiana-Bred racing, the 'intent' is there and owner/trainer Lauers know they can pick up a check, so if the
indeed falters, she'll be there passing tired rivals and maybe even find herself in contention.
In races like these, should the
falter, there is some chance of chaos where some unexpected prices end up on the ticket. There is a 10-cent 'Grand High 5' (Pentafecta) offered, which is notable for the 10-cent minimum offering. Somewhat interesting race.
