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There was an interesting incident and conversation yesterday in the 7th race at Gulfstream when the 6 (Toss) broke through and may have run off. I say may have since I was in the other room and only heard it on TVG. I don't know whether or not he also ran off and how far, which is sure to effect what the consequences of the breakthrough were. I guess to properly distinguish the difference between horses that breakthrough and run off long enough to have an effect from those that only breakthrough we will have to decide what distance the run off was before we can decide if it had an effect apart from the breakthrough. It is crucial that we be able to tell the 2 apart if we are to do a valid study on the effects of breakthroughs separate from the effect of run offs.
Rick Perloff was asked whether or not he cancels his bets if his horse breaks through. He says it's not an easy decision but he usually doesn't cancel since he wants to avoid how stupid he'd feel if the horse he liked goes on to win after he canceled the bet because of the breakthough. That's why we need a good study to see whether or not we should feel stupid if this happens to us.
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