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One of the most common bad value favorites is a horse that earns a big speed figure but is not likely to repeat that figure - for instance, the horse that gets loose on the lead over a speed favoring track. I actually downgrade all wire to wire winners that won on a day when speed was carrying.
A horse that comes from far off the pace and wins after there's a wicked pace that produces a pace meltdown. The winner's figure is suspect, the horse was passing tired horses, and the fast pace produced an unusually fast final time for the class.
There are many reasons why favorites are suspicious. It's much easier to show a profit betting non-favorites. You also have the bounce after a horse produces a new lifetime top.
Last edited by pandy; 05-26-2014 at 04:43 PM.
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