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I think you can toss the ML fav in the 6th at Santa Anita also. #1 Stormin Lute. Baffert started him in a MSW 5/2013 and the horse nearly won that debut at 6 1/2 furlongs. But then followed a 3 month layoff and a drop to rock bottom. He won, and was claimed by Miller, who entered him 2 weeks later in a StAl40m, only to scratch him and shelve him for 9 months. He brings him back in a claiming N2L. So he waits 9 months to race after the claim, and doesn't bother to protect him, even though I think the horse would qualify for the claiming waiver rule they have in California.
The common thread for these two I feel good about tossing.........looks like the trainers are taping them together after long layoffs to keep them moving. Both these horses look very speculative and should be bet as such, which means favoritism is too precarious for starters with such questionable health.
There you are, the first rule of tossing a favorite is that if there is ample reason to question the horse's overall health, get rid of it. You will pay the price now and then if you follow any rule too religiously, but since it's the favorite we're talking about, it's not like you're ever going to miss out on a price.
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