I somehow went to the trouble to pose this question– yesterday – then wiped it all gone!!!!
And didn't have the heart to re-compose it.
And it was a masterful question. Composed to peek your curiosity. Well I'm sure that with a new slant I'll do even better.
But first (open lions mouth insert head) value Handicapping. VALUE HANDICAPPING, VALUE HANDICAPPING is a lot of HOGWASH.
VALUE HANDICAPPING is a LOT OF HOGWASH.
Don't pick winners, pick value and you'll be ahead of the game. Pick 42% winners then throw away 25%. And the rest will fill your pockets with cash. HOGWASH. HOGWASH!!!!!!!
If you can pick one horse per race, win 42% of your wagers and make a FLAT BET profit. Who in their rite mind would care if 25% of them were on the post time favourite.
On this forum as well as other forums I hear "I handicapped all night to pick the winner, Only to have him turn out the post time favourite," "What a let down". To hell with that, put the meager winnings in your pocket and move along, move along.
In every incident in the past when I've avoided my #1 cause he was der favourite I've lost money. I'm after every winner in every race and I won't throw out the FAV without good reason.
When you bet against the favourite you need to know what you're doing.
And I get in trouble here. So my question to you is.
What's your rule/rules for spotting a phoney favourite. What lets you look at the post time favourite and say "They screwed up, this thing shouldn't be the favourite".
Here is one thing I've done in the past. Jot down the odds at 5 min to post, then again at 1 min. If the favourite goes up in odds pass the horse or the race.
Vaya Con Dios
Errol
