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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I am undecided about Taleb. I find his writing inspirational and thought provoking, but I have yet to embrace his actual strategies.
Taleb seems to promote a "convex"(which he sometimes calls a 'barbell strategy'...) investment strategy where he advises avoiding risk, while exposing yourself to positive black swans. It's a seductive theory.
In general I think it has merit. Keep yourself open to positive black swans. There are ways to accomplish that without marrying your ticket structure to it.
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I do believe his philosophy would suggest betting opposite or against the bridge jumper, or someone looking for the antifragile in small fields. You want to be against those with high or +80% coverage. You take a 60% loss if the favorite runs in the money, and therefore aren't entirely wiped out. When the favorite runs out of the money, you might get a 4000% return on show bets. In theory it works.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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