Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.
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If something goes amiss, the pressure on Baffert to run him will be enormous, and it'll be tough to overcome the Triple Crown fever. Since there are no longer any huge bonuses for winning the TC, one can hope that it will allow the horsemen to be a bit more sensible and do what's best for their horse.
We've seen many get caught up in Derby fever, and the result is there are way too horses running each year over their heads - and often to the detriment of their career. For a horse to be sound enough to make a start in all three Triple Crown races makes a case for their soundness, which again can be an enticement to run when the horse is indicating a Belmont may not be best for them.
As for who to toss, I'll be leaning to toss Bravazo, especially if the track is fast. I'm not a big fan of Lukas to begin with, and lost a lot of respect for him when he ran Winning Colors in the Belmont, with nothing to prove, no bonus on the line, and very minimal breeding concerns since she was a filly. Fortunately, she was able to bounce back and run big in the Breeders Cup, but that may have been in spite of him. "The Coach" admits he likes the big stage, and now we have a rare circumstance where a horse running over his head turns out to be competitive - putting the quality of the crop as being suspect rather than "way better than average", the opinion held by many going into the Derby.
Justify may offer no value in the Belmont, and he may have been tired and near the end of his form cycle - or not. Like Thask, I'll wait to see how the field shapes up, but there's no denying Justify's running style and his accomplishments so far make it tougher to see an upset.
