Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Baffled here. If I understand correctly, you are identifying a horse as being dead on the board, not because he is dead on the board, but because you expect him to be dead on the board. So we will take horse #1, you handicapping says he should be 3-1, but you expect that the public will make him 5-1. So this is defined by you as "dead on the board" even if goes off at 8/5? Since you have him labeled as dead on the board (even though he isn't in actuality) you now look to be some other top contender(#6) who you label as live on the board(because you expect him to be live on the board but he is a dead 8-1). So you are betting the race because you expected the 1 to be dead on the board which he isn't, and you are betting the 6 because you expected him to be live on the board, but he isn't.
This can't be right. What am I missing here?
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That would all be absolutely correct.
The results are amazing and have to be seen to be believed.
To sum it up in a single paragraph, "Since we know that the bet down horses win such a huge percentage of the races, our goal is to predict who the likely bet down horses will be. The end result is that when a horse looks like he
should be a good bet, he is the most
likely bad bet."
There are some exceptions. For example, a horse that figures to be (say) 3/5 or below, tilts the figures so badly that one cannot make sense of anything in the race. Perhaps we will discover a better understanding in the future.
BTW, I am certainly not saying that this strategy is perfect. What I am saying is that horses that are projected to be dead, generally return their backers around $1.30 or so for every $2 wagered. The goal is to identify horses like this because they add fuel the profit on whoever we eventually bet.
That $1.30 is a far cry from the $1.75 or more that is usually return on horses at 3/1 and below in this age.
[edit] One last clarification. I am not saying the horse will be "dead on the board," precisely. I am saying "dead" as in "won't run" or "won't persevere."
