Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
The real problem is, that even the very question is misleading in the sense that by the time you know it's too late because the horses are at least down the backstretch.
This is a great question, and one I (and a couple of HSH users) have been working on for several months. We've made great progress and our results are showing it.
When we look at "bet downs," we find that things have changed.
In the old days (maybe "good old days") the split worked pretty much like this:
30% of the winners were bet up from gate odds.
32% stayed about the same as their gate odds.
38% of the winners were bet down from gate odds.
Now we find it is more like:
12% bet up
20% about the same
68% bet down
The higher the rebate at the track, the more it shifts towards "bet down." At some tracks it is mid-70% range.
We had to begin with a definition:
"What is TOO MUCH MONEY?"
We decided against looking at final odds because (as mentioned above) we don't have those when the gate opens.
Besides, those late bet downs are simply the result of the smarter bettors taking advantage of the latest gate odds (and projections of what will follow, if they have the data and analysis tools).
So, what we finally came up with two definitions:
"A live horse is a horse that is EXPECTED to have MORE money bet on it than SOLID HANDICAPPING would dictate."
Conversely:
"A dead horse is a horse that is EXPECTED to have LESS money bet on it than SOLID HANDICAPPING would dictate."
If you read and understand this, you will find that it flies in the face of conventional wisdom. It encourages you to:
1. Make a line based upon how the public SHOULD bet the horse.
2. Make a line based upon your handicapping.
3. Prefer horses that FIGURE TO BE bet DOWN below your line.
4. Ignore the actual tote board.
Special note: a key point is that the focus must be placed JUST on the LOW ODDS horses. Note that I did NOT SAY that you can only BET low odds horses.
The big question: "Is there a DEAD horse among the low odds?" If there is, you now have a race to bet.
If there isn't then you have a race to pass.
Probably nobody will like hearing this because it means a change in how one looks at the races. We all know how much everybody wants to keep doing what they've been doing these last 30 years (even though the results have been horrible).
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Baffled here. If I understand correctly, you are identifying a horse as being dead on the board, not because he is dead on the board, but because you expect him to be dead on the board. So we will take horse #1, you handicapping says he should be 3-1, but you expect that the public will make him 5-1. So this is defined by you as "dead on the board" even if goes off at 8/5? Since you have him labeled as dead on the board (even though he isn't in actuality) you now look to be some other top contender(#6) who you label as live on the board(because you expect him to be live on the board but he is a dead 8-1). So you are betting the race because you expected the 1 to be dead on the board which he isn't, and you are betting the 6 because you expected him to be live on the board, but he isn't.
This can't be right. What am I missing here?
