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IMO, the answer is both. They are very live and they almost always are an underlay. Of course many of the folks betting them are getting fat rebates.
In this game 19 out of 20 betting are the "patsy", not just the lone fish on the table.
To go more in depth on the subject matter. I have researched Live/overbet horses in harness racing quite a bit(Mohawk). What I found is that no matter what I make a horse 8/5 or 6-1, if they are odds-on they win more often than they should, but not enough to be profitable. As the public line shifts over even money I find they win about the average of my projection and the public projection. So if the public give the horse a 30% chance of winning and I give the horse a 10% chance of winning the horse wins about 20% of the time. Where as on an odds on favorite, I can make him 6-1 or 10-1 or 2-1, but if he goes off at 4/5 he will win probably around 50% of the time no matter what I made him. Thus the key is to adjust your line on other horses to reflect the "insider" knowledge the public is giving you. But the problem of course is that late money doesn't come in until after off, so you have an inomplete picuture when it is time to bet (horse can be 6/5 and hammered to 3/5 which is a completely different story or vice versa). By the same token a lot of "value" horses do not become value until after the race is off.
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