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Whenever a horse takes 'too much' $💵$, is he 'live'... or is he an 'underlay'??
So how do you know??
Is the money telling you that this horse is live??
Or is the money irrational or uninformed money that is making the horse a good bet-against underlay??
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The real problem is, that even the very question is misleading in the sense that by the time you know it's too late because the horses are at least down the backstretch.
This is a great question, and one I (and a couple of HSH users) have been working on for several months. We've made great progress and our results are showing it.
When we look at "bet downs," we find that things have changed.
In the old days (maybe "good old days") the split worked pretty much like this:
30% of the winners were bet up from gate odds.
32% stayed about the same as their gate odds.
38% of the winners were bet down from gate odds.
Now we find it is more like:
12% bet up
20% about the same
68% bet down
The higher the rebate at the track, the more it shifts towards "bet down." At some tracks it is mid-70% range.
We had to begin with a definition:
"What is TOO MUCH MONEY?"
We decided against looking at final odds because (as mentioned above) we don't have those when the gate opens.
Besides, those late bet downs are simply the result of the smarter bettors taking advantage of the latest gate odds (and projections of what will follow, if they have the data and analysis tools).
So, what we finally came up with two definitions:
"A live horse is a horse that is EXPECTED to have MORE money bet on it than SOLID HANDICAPPING would dictate."
Conversely:
"A dead horse is a horse that is EXPECTED to have LESS money bet on it than SOLID HANDICAPPING would dictate."
If you read and understand this, you will find that it flies in the face of conventional wisdom. It encourages you to:
1. Make a line based upon how the public SHOULD bet the horse.
2. Make a line based upon your handicapping.
3. Prefer horses that FIGURE TO BE bet DOWN below your line.
4. Ignore the actual tote board.
Special note: a key point is that the focus must be placed JUST on the LOW ODDS horses. Note that I did NOT SAY that you can only BET low odds horses.
The big question: "Is there a DEAD horse among the low odds?" If there is, you now have a race to bet.
If there isn't then you have a race to pass.
Probably nobody will like hearing this because it means a change in how one looks at the races. We all know how much everybody wants to keep doing what they've been doing these last 30 years (even though the results have been horrible).
