I agree with your probable winner, but if Dortmund misses the start and gets stuck in the middle he doesn't look as good to me. If he doesn't clear to the lead, but does get a decent position 3 or more wide in the turn, he should be ok.
AP just doesn't impress me, on numbers (velocities), so if he is going to go out early he'll have to show me better velocities than he has thus far, and if he does, that may not bode well for him later. Firing Line may be the best bet of the top contenders, as he will be outside early and out of the kickback possibly, which appears to me to be quite excessive, from watching the undercard so far. Bayern got a bad start in the 9th, was stuck in the middle of all that stuff, and did not like it a bit. Maybe he was just rusty and not in top form but that kickback looked really bad to me.
