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"Can there exist a money management formula/method that can convert a negative edge to a positive roi? Something like a flat bet loss of 16% to a positive ROI of 20%?"
Let's try for something much easier--converting a 1.4% loss (the pass line in craps) to a 1% profit. While this can easily be done in the short run with a mild progression, many short runs do not equal one long run. Because at some point, that terrible losing streak hits.
While casinos around the world routinely bar players for card counting, shuffle tracking, ace steering, hole carding (blackjack), or for tying up machines when a video poker machine's jackpot moves into positive territory (video poker), or for being just a little too sharp (sports betting), I have never HEARD of a single place which bars players for using betting systems.
In a short run (say, 1000 horse bets), any result is possible because the sequence of wins and losses, and the prices, vary. You might win more (or lose less) by flat betting, or by Kelly, or by using any system you can invent. In the long run (one billion bets), your result is exactly the same as your single-bet expectation (unless you can figure out some way to bet the maximum on your winners and the minimum on your losers). So if you bet the pass line one billion times, you will lose just about 1.4%. No matter what system you might dream up.
Sad, but true.
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Barry Meadow
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