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Old 01-03-2007, 12:24 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
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-First let me be clear that I am not presuming to say its possible for some arbitrary swing from negative to positive. My comments relate directly to the question: "Is it possible for a system to turn negative flat bet roi into positive returns?"



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The method that I am thinking of is high level, and relatively low-profit.
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Originally Posted by speculus
At least at first glance, that's not the case. It's an automatic (as opposed to high level meaning "complex") and perhaps high profit.
-I do not know if you are looking at a different method. From what I am talking about, precision is extremely important, and profits are relatively low, and at this point only mathematically sound within a relatively small number of plays.





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It is profitable(mathematically) only within a certain range of plays x a certain range of hit percentage x greater than a certain odds.
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Originally Posted by speculus
What type of plays are these "certain range, certain hit% and level of odds? Pl explain. Or better still, pl send some link that will be educative so I know what you mean and verify it.
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The skill required to reap any significant profit would best be used towards a spot play that returns a flat-bet +roi. It is a sophisticated cousin of the martingale and should therefore carry all of the (fair?) negative bias associated with the martingale system.
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Originally Posted by speculus
Again, if possible pl give a link to what you are talking about so that I can verify.
-I do not have it online, and I am not sure I would want to share it at this point so quickly. It isn't brain surgery, and I am sure there are others like it. Where as a martingale is a crude double-up system designed for card games, this would be an adaptation for horse racing and considering the online element. It has to hold within the expected probabilities. A double-up is not necessary, only a certain expected profit @ a given odds. For example a 40% win percentage @ odds of $1.25 yields a flat bet loss of 10%, yet can yield a profit within a range of plays through a system. Not easy, Not recommended. Possible.
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