Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 09-18-2017, 12:18 PM   #228
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Race 1-Parx-9/18- 5-1/2f-Clm 7500 n3L-I’ll take a look at this using some of Pizzolla’s ideas plus a couple of mine. For starters, I attempted to set a fulcrum pace and found them all to N.A. A couple horses had good last pace numbers but all were atypical or even aberrant compared to other races. So I looked at all recent races and set an est. fulcrum pace at 46.0(fifths).

- Rocky The kid. 9-2 ML. He’s closer who I set his pace number at 46.2 from his last race. His adj. Sp. rtgs. Are highest of this lot. His late speed number by my calc’s is best of the lot, which doesn’t surprise being a closer.-Contender

Roosevelt Lane: I set his pace no. at 46.3 which is from his 3LR in May. By my class calc’s I set him as class of this bunch. His adj. S.r.’ s are 6th. His late speed is 5th, by my no;s.

-Made Of Steel-3-1 ML. I set his pace at 46.3 from 2LR in Aug. his adj. S.r.’s are 4th by my cal. I have his late speed as tied for first with

-In The Script. 10-1 ML. He set a blistering pace l.r. At 44.4 but that is an aberrant number looking at all his efforts. However, anyone who follows Parx will remember El Grillo who woke up recently and almost wired a field at 79-1, running 2nd. Then on Sunday he returned at 11-1 and ran 2nd again. In The Script led from the 7th pp l.r. So he may give it another shot today. I have his adj. S.r.’s as 4th best and his late speed 2nd last. Had they changed jockey today, I’d have to consider that as a positive.

Sergeant JWR- 4-1 ML. I set his pace number as 46.0 which is my est. fulcrum pace. His last race was 5f on the turf. And back on dirt today. I have his adj. S.r.’as 2nd best and his late speed as tied for 3rd. Contender

-Hennessy Fire 2-1 ML. I see a declining race horse as the ML favorite. I set his pace number at 47.2 with a 46.2 back in Aug. His adj. Speed is tied for 3rd, but a repeat of a 92 four months back would win this. His late speed is also tied for 3rd, but that’s including the effort from 4 mos. Ago. I wrote NQ in my notes.

-Return of a Giant: 12-1 ML. this horse was also in that aberrant pace race and ran a 45.3, but that’s atypical for him. I set his other numbers as 47.1 or 46.2 going back to Febf. His adj. S.r. are 3rd best but his late speed number is near the bottom.

When there’s no reliable fulcrum pace, it’s hard to decipher. I’m seeing them as / / / Doubtful a bet will be made. Interested if the tote tells me anything.
edit: at 34 mtp, the #2 has opened at modest 3-1 favorite. Considering his class, that doesn't surprise.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 09-18-2017 at 12:23 PM. Reason: live odds
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:11 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.