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[Ray2000]

Lately, I've been using a spreadsheet "App" to decide whether to box3, box2, keybox or wheel my picks.
I believe this sheet can improve a player's ROI by cutting down on the No-value bets.
Some Harness Exacta players here might find it useful. (It's limited to 10 horse fields but can be used for T-breds with some changes)

I will put this sheet up as an attachment if there is enough interest and if I can get some feed back on its use.
I need some beta testers ...I will not sell it but post it for free use.

Cost?.....It's free
What Tracks?..............................Most USA tracks plus Mohawk, Woodbine
Do I need an account or password?....No, It uses freely available WEB data
Do I have to handicap the Race?......Actually No, You can watch if the crowd faves are overlays in the Exacta pool or examine any 3 picks using current Toteboard odds. (What are the gray horse paying? ) If you don't want to create a line for your top 3 picks, it will use the current tote line.

What does it do????

It keeps a running history of the Exacta Will-Pays for Crowd Faves and also Your picks as the race approaches Posttime, showing which combos are poor bets. BTW, I am aware of the big objection to trying to use toteboard odds because of the last flip changes but I have found that patterns do exist. Poor bets tend to stay poor and bets "on the cusp" usually get pounded but others show promise. Finding what works at the track you play is all part of the game.

I've found that I can trust looking at prices, up to 2-3 minutes beyond the first appearance of "0 MTP" and still use the board info in getting a bet down. This is where patterns become useful.

The layout looks a bit confusing but some rows can be cleared if not wanted. At the very top you set the Track and Race number. Click on either of 2 Red Update buttons and the next 12 rows will show the usual tote information plus an alternate Win odds line created by "How the horse is being used" in Exacta pool. (This can sometimes spot barn money trying to hide in Exacta Wheels). 2 other rows give Place bet Minimum Prices and Dr Z Place pool Expectancies by Win/Place inefficiencies.

Now for the good part...

The bottom half of the spreadsheet has current Exacta Will Pays for Crowd Faves and Your Picks for the 6 combos of Exacta Plays...a/b, b/a, a/c, c/a, b/c, c/b. Poor paying bets to avoid are shown in red font. The algorithm uses Discounted Harville calculations based on Win pool amounts to determine "Good vs Poor" Bets. For the users Picks/Odds it includes an adjustable "safety" factor. By watching the "RED" bets you can decide to go for 3box (all white font) or 2box or Part wheel. If you "Update" once a minute the history of the Exacta Will Pays will be recorded so you can judge if any patterns are emerging and wether a wager is called for.

I am not going to spend the time and effort to write up the "Manual Details" unless there's enough interest.

The attachment shows The Meadows Race #7 today where I was able to limit my bet to the 1-4 Box.
I placed the bet at the 5927$ point in time...(It hit)


I'll be interested in any comments/suggestions.