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Thread: netflix
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:20 PM   #9
reckless
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison
Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.
Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM
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