Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago
The statement of the problem should be:
What aggregate ROI do I need in each race of the leg of a daily double to ultimately show a profit on the bet. The ROI is in relation to the win pool, as it is our only reference.
Taking 4 horses in an 8 horse field, if you are REALLY good, will result in about a .82 or .83 ROI. Most people aren't that good.
Taking all of the horses in an 8 horse field will yield about a .69 or .70 ROI...or mayyyyybe .71 or .72.
These aggregate ROIs will yield a huge loss in the daily double pool...probably on the order of 20 cents on the dollar (.80 ROI).
Try narrowing the selections down to two per race with an ROI of about .90 (if you bet them to win). You'll have a decent shot of being profitable, but you will have to withstand some potentially ugly losing streaks.
There's no two ways about it...if you want to profit, you are going to have to find longer prices and have the discipline and patience to withstand the potentially debilitating losing streaks. If you want to cash tickets, just play the top two in the morning line...you'll cash tons of tickets, but the bankroll erosion will be fast and definitive.
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The double ROI may or may not be relative to the win pool, the double is a seperate pool from the win pool. What the double pays can be lower or higher that what the horses pay in the win pools. Doubles pay sometimes more or sometimes less than a parlay of the same two horses in the win pool.
