Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
With an 80% hit rate in 3 horses you could simply bet all three. Period.
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As I understand the problem, it is not a 80% hit rate of a given race, it is a 80% hit rate of a subset of a given race and the probability of that subset having a contender is 3/X where “X” is the size of the field. This problem becomes a conditional probability or Bayesian analysis.
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