Nate Silver is my new hero
I picked up Nate Silvers 2002 book The Signal and the Noise today. Read about 40 pages. This is on page 11:
"A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time."
He also went on to say that poly-sci guys are probably still better than TV pundits. Note the date of the book, after Gore lost but before Trump.
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There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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