I don't know how he does it.
But IMO a high percentage of his runners show up on race day 'bulked up' or carrying some serious muscle mass compared to the others.
Horse racing is athletic competition, and this, combined with owners giving him some really good horses, gives him an advantage.
Right now as I type this the horse weights for yesterday's 'Big Cap' haven't made it into the Equibase Chart Data yet. (I'm guessing they'll publish a corrected chart at some point.)
IMO Newgate showed up in the paddock for yesterday's 'Big Cap' very much looking the part:
Bulked up, shredded, and carrying some serious muscle mass.
If I'm not mistaken, the horse weights displayed pre-race on the track video had him at 1252 lbs (the highest among the runners in the 'Big Cap' field.)
Keep in mind Newgate is a 4 year old foaled on 03-11-2020.
IMO a 4 yo in early March carrying more weight (muscle mass) than older horses in the same field is kind of a big deal.
Not all tracks have their horses step on a scale pre-race and report horse weights to Equibase, but Santa Anita is one of them.
Below are abbreviated pps showing Negate's Santa Anita running lines leading up to yesterday's 'Big Cap.'
Code:
Date-Track-Race Fin HWt
27Jan24SA8 D 9.0f San Pasqual G2 2^1 1269
06Jan24SA6 D 6.5f AOC89700nw2$N 2^½ 1274
---336 days-------------------------------
04Feb23SA3 D 8.5f RBLewis G3 1^¼ 1209
08Jan23SA8 D 8.0f Sham G3 2^nk 1202
If yesterday's horse weight was 1252, it looks like team Baffert had him fitter for the 'Big Cap' than the San Pasqual.
Now here's where things get a bit interesting.
Newgate's first race as a 3 yo saw him weighing in at 1274 lbs after a 336 day layoff.
One could ask if the added weight is the result of a natural growth spurt between a horse's 3 yo and 4 yo seasons.
One could also ask if the added weight is the result of something else.
Years ago I never would have entertained that second question.
But given the history of positive tests, the question has certainly crossed my mind.
-jp
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