Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I am not trying to "insult you", nor am I "casting aspersions" on your handicapping ability...but what you say here couldn't POSSIBLY be any more wrong than it already is...IMO. Every day, at every track in the land, we see horses who are raised in class to meet opposition which HASN'T run as fast -- either early OR late -- as these class risers have shown in their "cheaper" races. And, MUCH more often than not...the "cheaper" horses are unable to reproduce the lofty figures that they were able to run at the lower class level. Something prevents them from reproducing their best speed/pace figures at the higher class level...and this obstacle often has NOTHING to do with "pace". Now...I'm not a proponent of the theory that the "classier" horses scare the 'cheaper' ones by staring them in the eye, and what ultimately ends up defeating these "outclassed" horses may very well be nothing more than "trainer intention"...but "class" is a real determining factor out there...even if it exists only in the trainer's mind.
Now, look. I know that I can get a little abrasive here at times...but I don't particularly like the "polite" conversational style...where we all voice our handicapping opinions, without arguing about the possible mistakes in judgement that we all make from time to time. I like to ARGUE with people when my handicapping opinion differs from theirs...and I spend considerable time trying to explain in detail what my argument is...in order for this to become a "learning experience" for those who may not be as "experienced" in the game as some of the rest of us are. And I don't consider my arguments to be "insulting"...because I go to great lengths to avoid the harsh language that insults are made of.
I disagree with you when you say, as you did to TLG in post #6...that a horse's class rise is offset by a lofty speed and pace figure earned in a lesser race. And I explained to you why I disagree in my first paragraph here. To me..."class" cannot be offset by lofty speed/pace figures in lesser races...and my notebooks are FULL of examples that I would just LOVE to share with you. Because, as I already said...I believe that "arguments" of this type become great "learning experiences"...for ALL of us here.
And...I am not "sensitive" in the LEAST...so, you are welcomed to reply to me in any way that you choose. You can even choose NOT to reply to me at all...and my feelings would never get hurt, either way.
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Sorry but saying that, just because of a simple mistake in reading figures once, I cannot tell the difference between the class level of Finger Lakes and Belmont/Saratoga is both wrong and insulting. I'd have to be totally ignorant to not know that difference.
I probably have had about as many years of handicapping experience as you (over 60 years) and I have found that when horses fail to reproduce good figures when going up in class it is mainly because they cannot deal with the faster pace when going up in class. The exceptions, as you admit are really due to trainer intentions. That is a separate factor that has nothing to do with
the horse being "outclassed" as the cause of the horses' declining performance.
