Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I will run the numbers, but I already know it isn't nearly as common as a steady declining or inclining pattern. In many races the entire field will follow the same type pattern, to varying degrees of course. For example, when races fall apart, something like a 100, 80, 60, even the deep closer will often show a declining figure pattern. They just decline less than the rest of them.
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Let me phrase it in another way...and please correct me if I am wrong:
Every speed horse in every single race that we see is trying to accomplish the exact same thing...and that is...to rush out of the gate and establish an uncontested lead...so the horse can then slow down the pace during the second fraction...and then reassert itself during the latter stages of the race. This is the "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" scenario in action...and it's the most efficient way for the pace-setter to run. And the only reason that we DON'T see this sort of scenario play itself out more often is because the OTHER jockeys in the race RECOGNIZE how efficient this is as a race strategy...and they aren't so accommodating to the front-runner's wishes.
When we see that a certain race setup isn't as "common" as we think it should be...we have to ask ourselves: "Is this scenario rare because it is so taxing on the energy reserves of the horse...or is it rare because it's so BENEFICIAL for the horse that the OTHER jockeys in the race won't let the horse get away with it?"
