Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Another thing I'm testing, something that has always been a puzzle for handicappers is, do you play your top pick, or do you handicap contenders and then look for value? So say you handicap a race and come up with four horses ranked in order of preference. Regardless of what method you're using to handicap, I think you could make a case that you should never bet the favorite. So if your top pick is the favorite, you should either pass the race, or look over your other three ranked horses to see if there's any value there. But I'm not sure that you should ever bet the second choice, either. The first two choices win around 54% of the races, but the value is usually in the horses that win less often... it's sort of a paradox because you have to find the best value among the horses that are less likely to win the race.
|
There is theory and there is reality.
I theory, you should make a betting line and bet the best value regardless of where the horse ranks. The reality is that we are all working with incomplete information and understanding. So making odds lines is fraught with peril.
I've found that "in general" I am better off sticking to my top choices and passing the race when the horse is below 5/2. I am a little flexible on that bottom limit if I think the horse has a huge edge and get a little tighter if I have some extra concerns or the field seems deep.
I will occasionally bet someone further down my ranking, but only if the horse figures so close to my top choice it was a real struggle to separate them. Then I might even bet both of them if the odds are right.
I will also occasionally use a live longshot that ranks further down by trying to get him into the exacta, trifecta or super, but I won't key the horse on top. I'll use him in different spots.
If I totally hate the favorite I will also spread a little trying to beat him even if I don't have a strong opinion.
