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[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

Again, that's a theory, and I get the theory, but it doesn't work in real life. Many years ago I said the same thing in some of my columns, but I was wrong. That's why testing is better than theory. A great handicapper, someone who is great at picking winners, is still not going to be able to show a profit on win bets on 8/5 shots, or favorites in general. If you can get to something like a 5% loss betting favorites, you're a master handicapper. Everytime I've had a good year and actually went back and checked the results, the favorites I bet only provided a mental stability that cut down on a series of losing bets, but they were not profitable. All of my profit came from longshot winners that I keyed in winning exotics. Most winning players get the bulk of their profit from several nice hits each year. 8/5 shots don't provide that, and you simply can't overcome the takeout with favorites.

There are also a lot more overlays in the higher odds range because it requires a really sharp handicapper to see that a 15-1 shot should actually be 6-1. But with favorites, everyone can see why the horse is favored.

Now, I agree, that it's good to have the ability to spot bad favorites and bet against them. But that doesn't mean that it's smart to bet on the horses that appear to be legit favorites. Bet against the bad favorites, pass the races where the favorite appears legit.

The best and fastest horse in the race still loses more than it wins, so you simply can't take short prices.

Not a thought out of place.

Great post.