Quote:
|
Originally Posted by eqitec
Here's a simple hypothetical example.
Today's race is at AQU at 6F on dirt. It's a match race between two horses, A & B. Both horses have only one running line in their PPs.
Horse A's one running line is from a 6F race on dirt at AQU.
Horse B's one running line is from a 7F race on dirt at AQU.
Horse A's published pace figs for its one running line are 81-90-92.
Horse B' published pace figs for its one running line are 86-91-87.
In terms of analyzing pace potentials for today's race, is there any relevance between these two running lines at dissimilar distances? Would you conclude that Horse B will out run Horse A to the 1st call? Or that Horse A will be a stronger closer than B.
Or, are the pace figs from the dissimilar distances irrelevant?
|
Pace figures between 6f and 7f races are not compatible...because the races are run differently. The 7f races usually feature unusually slow first quarters, which usually lead to abnormally fast last quarters...as the jockeys are compensating for the added distance. You might be able to project how fast the 7f front runner might run the first quarter when it shortens up...but that would be just a guess. I find that pace figures work best when the horse is not overly restrained in the early stages of a sprint.
I find that 6f and 6.5f races are much more compatible, though.
I also don't believe that pace figures are particularly helpful when analyzing horses with only one lifetime start. Many horse improve dramatically in their second start...and the level of improvement is not always predictable.
