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Michael Pizolla in his books advises to always use the most recent race--------unless you shouldn't.
If a horse has a recent race--I used to use 28 days, now 35 (thank you trainers who don't run their horses,) I always make a pace/speed rating.
I will use pace lines further down if there is a great, or two good reasons where the top line may be excused. But most of the time I use the most recent for dirt races. It's less of a guessing game to use the most recent.
Higher class, trouble, claimed, distance, up close early after a lay off, off track, etc. are reasons.
I do not consider turf races when handicapping for dirt, or vice versa. In fact I cross them out. Also races less than 4.5f because they more closely resemble quarter horse races, and are virtually pace less.
But when I do use a line other then the last, it is more of a guessing game how it will run today.
I played Turf Paradise today. (I always feel a little dirty playing a track with such high take outs.) I bet 3 of 8 races.
As an example--Race 3 $16k claiming
#2 Reconsidering last ran in OP Clm $20k pace line 92/88/180.
All his races were higher class down to eight races ago 7/2/17. So I also used 7/14 race at Alb was (89/93/184) which I wrote under in parentheses.
#5 Four times Lucky last race was $16 Op Clm, pace line 85/80/165
Next line down 9/3 at Cby was (95/85/180).
The two won, and the 5 finished second, but based on the last pace line, he had no right to place.
I bet the 2 to win and double the win bet to place and it paid $7.00 and $3.00
Pizolla also advised to use all turf races in selecting a pace line.
This greatly increased my win pct. on turf races.
Race 7 turf, clm $20k, the best pace lines from each horse were--
1) 85/84/169
2) 82/94/176
3) 82/90/172
4) 78/95/173
5) 80/92/172
6) 77/98/175
7) 87/96/183
8) 87/92/179
9) 82/96/178
The 7 won and paid $11.40. It's last race was 1:37.1 and lost by 10 lengths. The line was 78/86/164 it was 16k op clm, I rate 2 levels higher.
I lose my share of all kinds of races, but these steps give me reasons to play or avoid races.
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