Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
In the end it doesn't really matter. Blended takeout on horse racing is 20+ percent. Sports betting is sub 5%. Gamblers don't care about the costs to put on the show, nor should they. If horse racing can't get costs under control to the point that it is a viable gambling game, it will lose. That is the death spiral we are in. Rather than try to compete, racing just keeps raising the price. It will never work long term.
The irony is the game would be nearing death already if not for tracks giving big takeout cuts to the biggest bettors. It has paused the death spiral for a while, but it won't last. You can only fool people for so long.
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The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that all bettors care equally about takeout.
What is the most profitable strategy if some bettors care a lot about takeout and some don't?
Answer that question and it leads inexorably to rebate shops.