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Another angle is that WEG shippers racing first time at M1 typically outperform their previous numbers. And M1 shippers racing first time at Mohawk usually don’t live up to their M1 numbers.
I haven’t a solid conclusion for why this is true. Perhaps it is for one or many of the following reasons:
1. WEG horses may be in better shape because many are accustomed to “two move” racing, having to sprint hard to establish position to the first turn and then save something for the homestretch.
2. The outer tier flow is often poor at Mohawk and good at M1, so race lines from Mohawk might not be truly representative of what the horse can do with a good trip.
3. The different driving colonies at each track. (?)
4. More horses appear to be in contention at M1 because of lively flow.
5. The weather is often warmer at M1.
6. Track configuration and dimensions. (Are the turns tighter at Mohawk?)
The top tier horses won’t see as much of a difference between tracks because they are in better shape anyway.
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