Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
What if the Pletcher horse is 5-2 and the other horse is 4-1?
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Pletcher horse at those odds.
I do think, however, based on my experience, that it's not necessary to look at the human factor at all. For instance, someone who only bets on longshots and uses some combination of pace handicapping and angles would probably be better off concentrating on that and ignoring the human factor. The human factor increases win probability but can lower ROI. However, I guess someone who is extremely patient could find overlays among high percentage trainers and jockeys.
And there are other ways to use the human factor. For instance, there are some small time owner/trainers who are particularly good at winning with longshots in certain situations. For instance, John Barile, The Tampa Bay Downs handicapper, keeps trainer stats and looks for those small barn boxcar longshot winners. And he doesn't need to hit that many each year because some pay huge prices. For a player who specializes like that, the human factor is important.
