Thought it might be a good idea to post some data.
This is what I have in the database, Leparoux at Saratoga meet to date current through yesterday 08-17-2018.
Code:
query start: 8/18/2018 9:39:24 AM
query end: 8/18/2018 9:39:24 AM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND RIDER='LEPAROUX JULIEN R'
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2018#
AND [DATE] <= #08-17-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 32.60 104.20 68.50
Bet -100.00 -100.00 -100.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -67.40 4.20 -31.50
Wins 3 10 13
Plays 50 50 50
PCT .0600 .2000 .2600
ROI 0.3260 1.0420 0.6850
Avg Mut 10.87 10.42 5.27
This first table shows the data from the above sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for an early speed factor called EarlyConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F19 Rank (EarlyConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
2 -4.80 16.00 0.7000 2 8 .2500 4.1667 5.60
3 -6.60 28.00 0.7643 1 14 .0714 1.1905 21.40
4 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
This table shows the sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for a late speed factor called LateConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F22 Rank (LateConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -0.80 12.00 0.9333 2 6 .3333 5.5556 5.60
2 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
3 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 13.40 8.00 2.6750 1 4 .2500 4.1667 21.40
7 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
This table shows the sample (Leparoux at Saratoga) broken out by rank for final odds:
Code:
By: Odds Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 3.20 8.00 1.4000 2 4 .5000 8.3333 5.60
2 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000 0.00
3 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 -18.00 18.00 0.0000 0 9 .0000 0.0000 0.00
5 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000 0.00
6 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 9.40 12.00 1.7833 1 6 .1667 2.7778 21.40
8 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Some observations:
Mr. Leparoux is 3 for 50 at Saratoga meet to date.
Slicing and dicing a sample of three winners makes it hard to draw meaningful conclusions.
BUT --
He's 0 for 8 when riding the top EarlyConsensus horse.
He's 2 for 6 when riding the top LateConsensus horse.
He's 2 for 4 when riding post time favorites. (When you're on the best horse sometimes you're going to win no matter what you do as a rider.)
-jp
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