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Old 04-23-2023, 11:11 PM   #118
Suspicious Tendons
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Join Date: Apr 2023
Location: West Coast
Posts: 12
I still use it. However, you have to get creative with spotting what combinations of categories work for certain distances, surface, and/or projected running types. Things will run as they should, until they stop working. You have to constantly adapt your skills, including handicapping tools. I try separating everyone on a visual running style first, and then use Sartin to gauge if the early types are legit, effective etc... and go down-the-line to the S-types, if they exist. I try to find a comparable line that is within 1 furlong of today's distance, firm/fast surface, and similar class level. It has to be within 105 days or less to be usable (or within 5 races within that timeframe). It is rare if anything beyond Line 3 is winning line, but sometimes it does happen. If it goes beyond 105 days, I take into account past history, workout tab, previous class levels, and if the trainer's stats on 90+ day layoff within the last 12 months.

With E types running tracks with short stretch runs, I give a stronger lean on the SC category, and crosscheck the TS. Tracks like Del Mar, Charles Town, Tampa Bay Downs, Santa Anita, and even Gulfstream... you have to take that category into account. Will the early speed still be on the lead coming out of that final turn? Once it goes to the bigger stretch run tracks like Fairgrounds, Saratoga, Aqueduct etc..., then you have to look if the SR, HID, and TTL on such a front runner shows if he/she has enough gas in the tank to hold on. Going in-order from E to S within the field is a methodology that works for me until I find the likely one.

If there is ONE thing that works well, and has some consistent backing to it, it is making a track profile for energy distribution running styles. You won't see 70% Early-types win at Santa Anita on any of their surfaces, but maybe a handful of those at the dirt distances at Charles Town. Late and sustained pressers are consistently found as the majority of the winners going five panels on Del Mar's turf. Switch to 9.0F turf at Del Mar, and it is Late, Sustained, and Sustained Pressers that totally dominate. Knowing what energy distribution quirks work at each track is absolutely vital to having a one-up on the general betting public. I cannot reiterate that enough.
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